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A review by jasonfurman
Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology by Chris Miller
5.0
Chip War is an outstanding history of the microchips from their invention up until just about the current moment (hopefully the eventual paperback edition will add some context on the significant recent U.S. policy shift on chips). It is written in a relatively easy and entertaining style that makes it easy to digest what is clearly a work of substantial depth of reporting and history. The book covers the global nature of microchips—the rise and fall of the fortunes of different companies and countries, the evolving division of labor in chip production, the ways in which government policy have been integral to developments at various stages but have also failed. Overall it serves an excellent primer on the different types of chips, their different uses and the ways in which their global supply chains operate. It also accomplishes much more with a diagnosis of the current moment and recommendations for the future.
Some of the parts were completely new to me—like the Soviet and then Russian efforts to develop their own microchip industries. Other parts added substantial depth to aspects of the microchip ecosystem we have today, like the origins of the ASML as the only supplier of high-tech and the ways in which TSMC became the only fab for the most high tech chips. One part that was not new to me, but I appreciated because so many people get it wrong, is that he emphasizes that the chip shortage in 2021 and 2022 was largely the result of dramatically increased demand for chips for consumer electronics rather than some worsening of supply—in fact he depicts the efforts China took to keep chip factories running even when everything else shut down due to the pandemic.
Chris Miller does not spend much time discussing the underlying science and engineering except insofar as it is necessary to understand the economics. The description of the cost and scientific/engineering breakthroughs needed for Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography needed to make even smaller transistors was especially vivid.
Much of the book is about the interplay of civilian and military considerations in the development of chips. Initially the military was the primary consumer of them, buying something like 90 percent (I believe, did not recheck the number). A big breakthrough was putting them in Minutemen II missiles which increased their accuracy enough to mean they could more effectively take out Russian missiles. Over time, however, consumer uses grew while military fell—not to something like 2 percent of total chip production. Moreover it is way too expensive for the military to do its own fabrication and in many cases even its own design, investments that are not just costly but would be obsolescent in a few years time. The increased reliance on consumer demand was a strength of Western and Asian allied innovation, consumer electronics in Japan played a role that the Soviet Union with its largely military industry could never match.
The main purpose of all of this history and analysis is to understand the current moment, particularly the vulnerability of the global economy to anything that happened to TSMC (a massive earthquake or a Chinese invasion/blockade), the United States impressive position as a global chokepoint for many of the most important technologies but lack of anything resembling self reliance, and China’s struggle to overcome its huge deficit in technology and relatively unimportant role in both the global supply chain and producing for its own needs. While I mostly agree with the author’s diagnosis and policy advocacy at times he was a bit overly simplistic and editorial in his judgments of the Obama administration, the battles within the Trump administration and where policy is now. Some of that read less like history and more like an oped written in the heat of the moment.
Overall, Chip War is a fabulous guide to the global economy, appreciating one of the major security challenges facing the United States, and formulating a better understanding for handling it going forward. As an up-to-the-moment guide it leaves the reader excited to read the sequel—does Moore’s Law still hold? What happens to Intel? Does China start making higher-tech chips? Does Taiwan stay peaceful? I look forward to watching all of this play out in real time—and it might play out slightly better if policymakers and the public are better informed by reading this book.
Some of the parts were completely new to me—like the Soviet and then Russian efforts to develop their own microchip industries. Other parts added substantial depth to aspects of the microchip ecosystem we have today, like the origins of the ASML as the only supplier of high-tech and the ways in which TSMC became the only fab for the most high tech chips. One part that was not new to me, but I appreciated because so many people get it wrong, is that he emphasizes that the chip shortage in 2021 and 2022 was largely the result of dramatically increased demand for chips for consumer electronics rather than some worsening of supply—in fact he depicts the efforts China took to keep chip factories running even when everything else shut down due to the pandemic.
Chris Miller does not spend much time discussing the underlying science and engineering except insofar as it is necessary to understand the economics. The description of the cost and scientific/engineering breakthroughs needed for Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography needed to make even smaller transistors was especially vivid.
Much of the book is about the interplay of civilian and military considerations in the development of chips. Initially the military was the primary consumer of them, buying something like 90 percent (I believe, did not recheck the number). A big breakthrough was putting them in Minutemen II missiles which increased their accuracy enough to mean they could more effectively take out Russian missiles. Over time, however, consumer uses grew while military fell—not to something like 2 percent of total chip production. Moreover it is way too expensive for the military to do its own fabrication and in many cases even its own design, investments that are not just costly but would be obsolescent in a few years time. The increased reliance on consumer demand was a strength of Western and Asian allied innovation, consumer electronics in Japan played a role that the Soviet Union with its largely military industry could never match.
The main purpose of all of this history and analysis is to understand the current moment, particularly the vulnerability of the global economy to anything that happened to TSMC (a massive earthquake or a Chinese invasion/blockade), the United States impressive position as a global chokepoint for many of the most important technologies but lack of anything resembling self reliance, and China’s struggle to overcome its huge deficit in technology and relatively unimportant role in both the global supply chain and producing for its own needs. While I mostly agree with the author’s diagnosis and policy advocacy at times he was a bit overly simplistic and editorial in his judgments of the Obama administration, the battles within the Trump administration and where policy is now. Some of that read less like history and more like an oped written in the heat of the moment.
Overall, Chip War is a fabulous guide to the global economy, appreciating one of the major security challenges facing the United States, and formulating a better understanding for handling it going forward. As an up-to-the-moment guide it leaves the reader excited to read the sequel—does Moore’s Law still hold? What happens to Intel? Does China start making higher-tech chips? Does Taiwan stay peaceful? I look forward to watching all of this play out in real time—and it might play out slightly better if policymakers and the public are better informed by reading this book.